The NBA Lottery takes place tonight at 5:30 PM Pacific Time. If you were planning on watching The Lottery, don’t waste your time. The League has already decided that the Bulls will get the first pick.
As it stands the odds to get the first pick are as follows:
|New York Knicks||14.0%|
|New Orleans Pelicans||6.0%|
|Los Angeles Lakers||2.0%|
Looking at the list, the teams with a realistic shot at the #1 pick are the Knicks, Cavs, Suns, Bulls and Hawks. There is absolutely no way the league will let Zion Williamson end up anywhere outside of Chicago, Atlanta, New York, Miami or LA. They simply cannot let a generational talent like that end up in a non-marquee city.
The Knicks have been bad for a while – it almost makes too much sense for Zion to go there as the #1 pick.
Let’s take a look at how the lottery has historically shaken out over the last decade:
|2017||Brooklyn Nets (76ers)||25.00%||1|
|2012||New Orleans Hornets||13.70%||4|
|2011||Los Angeles Clippers (Cavs)||2.80%||8|
|2009||Los Angeles Clippers||17.70%||3|
Over the last 10 years, the team with the best lottery odds has taken home the #1 pick just four times – the past four years in a row. The average pre-lottery position of the team taking home the #1 pick has been 3.5. As we all know – 3.5 rounds up to 4. Guess who holds the the number four spot in pre-draft lottery odds? The Chicago Bulls.
Based on the history of the NBA Draft Lottery, as well as the data I have analyzed, I can conclude that the Chicago Bulls will win the 2019 NBA Draft Lottery.
Many people are saying the Knicks are getting Zion, but I see things differently.